Market Outlook (For the coming days)

Hi Friends
Really sorry for not updating the site on a daily basis, as there are lot of queries coming up and in order to answer as many as possible hardly any time is left to update the site daily. However the ones who are intrested in the Delivery Calls should not be worried much about it because it does not require daily postings. Actually this site is meant for Delivery based investors but due to so many emails regarding nifty views and outlook i started updating frequently. I keep on adding the query list in my address book and send them emails together constantly updating about the markets and the open calls. Would request all to mail any queries/feedback or suggestions @ nishantlakkar@gmail.com with the subject "Query/Feeback/Suggestion" which ever is applicable
Nyways,
Markets have gained on 2 days after a week long consolidation between 4900 and 5200.
I personally believe that one should hold on to their current positions and dont take any additional position till budget.
Although I expect the Education, health, and IT sector to get special considerations in this budget.
I would like to highlight some of the important points from my reports to all the free access members here in this website regarding the expectations from budget.

• Reduction in direct tax rates for individuals
• Some reduction or elimination of dividend distribution tax
• Rationalization of excise duties, including the auto sector
• Rationalization of exemptions for corporates
• Lower customs duties for commodities to contain inflation and
rationalization of inconsistencies
• Enhanced credit availability for the agriculture sector
• Some relief in FBT
• A sharp increase in the outlays for social sectors like health and education
ØBalancing act on growth v/s social commitments to continue
ØSince this budget is the last full budget (next budget most likely to be vote-onaccount
budget) of UPA, the FM may be tilted towards social commitments
ØThe tug of war between inflation and growth related measures will also
continue
ØWe expect higher allocations to education, unemployment, healthcare to
support the social commitments
ØInfrastructure will again turn out to be the key thrust area and we expect
further measures to be announced to boost investment in this area
ØBudget allocation to agriculture related items may get intensified as
agriculture is a weak component to the GDP. An increase in agri supply also
eases out inflation
ØFiscal deficit could be projected at sub 3% level
ØGovt’s commitment towards achieving the 9% GDP rate will continue
ØFurther cut in certain custom duties in commodity sectors like metals,
petrochem and chemicals is expected as this will ease out the supply side
constraints on one hand and reduce the pressure on inflation on the other
ØA cut in direct tax rates expected as the first 10 months’ direct tax
collections have been 40% above the target
ØWe expect a likely cut in corporate tax rate to 30%. This is despite the fact
that we expect a populist budget
ØThe individual threshold limit might get revised upwards or alternatively
there might be an investment based incentive scheme introduced to
channelise savings for investment purposes

These are a part of the report which i prepared for the PMS and other members. I also have a full report on BUDGET from Kotak... If anybody wants that please email your request.

Happy Investing
Investomaniac
JAIDADIKI

Market Outlook (21/02/2008)

Hi Friends
Yesterday we saw one of the worst days since my entry into the stock markets. I term it as the worst day (even worst then any other lower circuit in the markets before) because the games which the nifty was playing. It kept on breaking the supports and hitting the resistance for numerous occassions during the trading day and the traders ARE RELUCTANT TO HOLD ON TO ANY POSITION, BE IT SHORTS OR LONGS. The volumes are still a concern for me as around 60000 crore volume on Nifty is atleast 35-40% less then a normal day trading participation of 95-100 thousand crores. It would be very difficult for the markets to go up untill and unless the domestic and foreing funds take long positions and most importantly hold them. What is happening right now is that whatever positions the traders are taking they are booking it instantly.. ie: not carrying their longs or shorts which makes the stop loss hit on both the sides and eventually selling pressure is seen. My view is that we have to soon go past 5350-5360 mark and stay above it with good volumes to be under the wraps of the bulls. On the other side, if the markets breaks the 200 DMA again which is around 4890 levels... then we are in a BEAR PHASE with the heavy DOWNSIDE.
Asian Markets are trading strong and DOW also ended onj positive note after a weak opening hence we can open positive today but have to see weather we are able to sustain the highs or make new highs for the day or not.
I am still long and will wait for today... If we break support levels today as well then I would advice an EXIT on ALL LONGS...

Happy Investing
Investomaniac
JAIDADIKI

Market Outlook (20/02/2008)

Hi Friends
As mentioned earler we have seen 2 days of sluggish trading where profit booking was seen on every rise...I am extremly positive on the remaining days of the week and my expiry target is above 5700++... The momentum stocks like NTPC, RPACK, TISCO, TATAMOTOR etc should be performing well along with the markets.... All investment advices should be on hold. Any other queries/feedback/information please mail at nishantlakkar@gmail.com

Happy Investing
Investomaniac
JAIDADIKI

Market Outlook (18/02/2008)

Hi Friends
Markets are all set for a PREBUDGET rally...The fundamentals and the technicals both give a clear indication of a ROCK SOLID Expiry for this series..
As per the technicals the markets have bounced back after breaking the 200 DMA levels twice and history also says that markets have strongly bounced back after that. As per the technical experts...... the markets are all set for a ride on the upside and it could be termed as a pre budget rally....
We have already booked our positions on friday and we can reenter the same with nifty targeting 5800+ in expiry....

All our investment picks are rocking.. and should be kept on hold.
INOX Leisure is looking very good at the moment.. and may target 175 in the near term.
Happy Investing
Investomaniac
JAIDADIKI

Market Review (for the week ended 15/02/2008)

Hi Friends
As expected the markets rocked after last tuesday and those who traded on the NIFTY FUTURES & OPTION calls given by me for buying on last tuesday would have made significant movement, because from wednesday the markets have moved NON STOP on the upper side. The nifty 5500 call bouht around 25-30-35 levels.. made a high of 80 rs.. Nifty jumped more then 300++ points for those who had bought on tuesday late trade as informed bty me... Delivery calls are not to be discussed on a daily basis, as they are meant to be moving slowly but steadily.. Keep holding the stocks for good returns. There are some rumours coming that RPOWER is planning to issue bonus shares (except the promoters) to all those investors who are currently holding their stocks.. board meeting on 24th Feb.. Unconfirmed news though... if true... could take the stock past the issue price very soon...!!
We will wait for some time to reenter the markets... at this point of time I would wait and watch my holdings grow even if the markets are rising...!!

Happy Investing
Investomaniac
JAIDADIKI

Market Outlook (15/02/2008)

Hi Friends
I hope all have enjoyed the 2 days of bull run after my recommendation to buy on tuesday late hours.. All those who would have bought Nifty on Tuesday late hours would have made 300+ points in it till today.. I recommended to few people buying a 5500 Call @ around 26-27 and also above around 35-36. Today the price was 53. I WOULD PREFER PEOPLE WHO HAVE POSITIONS TO BOOK PROFITS HERE BECAUSE I FEEL THAT WE MIGHT HAVE 1-2 SLUGGISH TRADING SESSIONS WITH A NEGATIVE BIAS. I DONT SEE A HUGE FALL FROM HERE, BUT THE LAST 2 DAYS VOLUMES ARE A SIGN OF WORRY FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH I AM QUITE BULLISH BEFORE THIS EXPIRY BUT STILL IN THIS MARKET WOULD PREFER BOOKING PROFITS AS AND WHEN THEY COME. BOOK OUT AND WAIT TILL MONDAY-TUESDAY FOR A CLEAR SIGNAL AND THEN WE WILL RE-ENTER, IF I SEE ANY REASON FOR REBUYING EARLIER THEN THAT, THEN WOULD INTIMATE THE SAME HERE AT THE EARLIEST. DELIVERY BASED INVESTMENTS CAN BE LEFT UNTOUCHED BECAUSE WE ARE NOT BOTHERED ABOUT THE SAME. BOOK PROFITS IN THE TRADING AND SHORT TERM CALLS.

Happy Investing
Investomaniac
JAIDADIKI

Market Outlook (13/02/2008)

Hi Friends
I hope every body bought the recommended shares today in the late hours...(which was mentioned in the previous blog that to buy only on tuesday late trade, not before that). We might open gap up and it has to be seen wheather we sustain at higher levels or we see the selling pressure. As i have told before that there was some news of Foreign Funds entering the Indian markets in the 2nd week of Feb and we can see an upmove from there... (All these news have been shared in this blog, kindly refer the previous posts).
My Nifty target before this months expiry is 5500+ and thats the reason why I asked all to BUY NIFTY 5500 Calls...
The other delivery stocks willl rock in the coming days.. keep holding the same.
Dow is trading up 175 points when I am writin this article...

Happy Investing
Investomaniac
JAIDADIKI