RPOWER--- Bonus issue

Hi Friends.

Recommended to all who have registered with us on email 2 weeks ago, about BONUS DATE ANNOUNCEMENT very soon. Yes... In matter of days you will hear from the management. Keep holding the stock.. Its all set to cross 400+. (We recommended a buy from 315 levels)

Regards
Happy Investing
Investomaniac
JAIDADIKI

HEG--- A long term bet

HEG Limited

Sensex 15807
BSE Code 509631
Face Value Rs. 10/-
CMP Rs 287
52 Week Range H/L Rs. 609/ 166
Equity Rs. 43.51 Cr
Market Cap. Rs. 1257.66 Cr
Nos. of Shares 4.35 Cr
Free Float 46.77%


Company Profile

HEG Ltd is a premier company of the LNJ Bhilwara Group, and is India's leading graphite electrodes manufacturer. . Set up in 1977, in technical and financial collaboration with Societe Des Electrodes Et Refractaires Savoie (SERS), a subsidiary of Pechiney of France, HEG is now the largest integrated graphite plant in South East Asia & Middle East. Spread over an area of about 170 acres, HEG (graphite division) has facilities for production of Graphite Electrodes and Graphite Specialities. HEGL has its graphite manufacturing plant located in Mandideep (Madhya Pradesh) with a capacity of around 52,000 MT per annum. The Company also operates a sponge iron plant, a steel billets plant, and captive power generation units totaling 56.3 MW. The company exports over 80% of it’s production to more than 25 countries of the world. HEG also has a dedicated R&D Set up for Carbon & Graphite.

Industry Outlook

The worldwide graphite electrodes industry, which accounts for 80% of HEGs revenue, continued to witness strong demand and price conditions during FY2007 and this trend is expected to continue in FY2008 as well. The demand for graphite electrodes is driven by the production of steel through the electric arc furnace (EAF) route. This process of steel production is slowly gaining ground and is expected to grow further. Rough industry estimates of graphite electrode demand also suggest a positive scenario. From about 1.02 million tonnes in 2001, the global demand for graphite electrodes is estimated to increase to 1.34 million tonnes in 2010. With no significant capacities being added globally to the current capacity of about one million tonnes, established players like HEG stand to benefit the most. The demand for graphite electrodes is spread across the US, South America, Europe, Japan and China, which are the principal manufacturers of steel through the EAF route. Nonetheless, given the lower cost of production and the likely improvement in power availability, it may only be a matter of time before Indian manufacturers too take to this route completely


Trigger Points for Investment


• The company has recently invested Rs 4.5 Billion ( US$ 120 Million) to expand their capacity.
• Steel manufacturing companies with electric arc furnace are the only consumers of graphite electrodes, with the demand for graphites is only expected to rise in future, its only matter of time that the revenue and the profitability of the company will grow.
• HEGL has its captive power generation facilities with a total capacity of 51.3
MW and it plans to set up another power plant with a capacity of 30MW.
• HEG's graphite electrodes are exported to 25 countries around the world, including developed countries like USA, Canada, Germany, France, Italy ,South Korea, Australia. The company continues to build relations with these clients over last few years, which has helped the company in increasing its export turnover.
• HEG Ltd. had increased its graphite manufacturing capacity from 33,600 MTPA in FY05 to 52,000 MTPA in FY06. This will further be increased to 57,000 MTPA in the current financial year.


Key Concerns

Limited availability of needle coke:
Needle coke is a premium grade, high-value petroleum coke, used in the manufacturing of graphite electrodes in arc furnaces and it is a very important Increase in needle coke prices remains a principal risk due to demand-supply mismatch.. There are very few companies in the world which produces needle coke. Prices of needle coke are expected to remain firm, as it is a derivative of crude. However increase in prices of electrodes should offset the rise in price of raw material.

Foreign Exchange risk:
We have seen rupee appreciating by 8 to 10%. Any further appreciation will lead to a hit on the revenues of the company , as around 50% of the revenues are export generated.


Valuations

Looking at the demand for graphites in the steel industry, HEG has increased its
manufacturing capacity over the period. HEGL being the leading graphite manufacturer in India will be able to realize the benefits of the rising demand and increasing prices. HEG holds 36% stake in BEL( Bhilwara Energy Ltd).We estimate the value of the HEG’s stake in BEL at Rs98/sh of HEG based on the last private equity placement that BEL has done with 2 US based funds. BEL is planning to go for another private placement or IPO and HEG expects the valuations to be substantially higher than the previous valuations. Excluding the current value of HEG’s stake in BEL, at the current market price of 260 the stock trades at P E Multiple of 10 with our FY09 FDEPS of Rs 25.78/-

One can have this stock under its long term portfolio with a time horizon of 12months and a price target of Rs 385++ (Upside 35%+)


For more details please visit www.investomaniac-analyst.blogspot.com or contact nishantlakkar@gmail.com




Disclaimer: This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained in this article are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Myself or any of the contributors to this article may be investing in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in the articles. Neither myself nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. In this article the stocks are analysed using fundamental and value analysis, which is the core of Investing. Genuine attempts are made here to present correct information, however we do not guarantee 100% accuracy. The writer (myself) IS NOT RESPONSIBLE for any LOSS in the investments made, following the recommendations here. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

Tech Mahindra-- & Tantia Construction

Hi Friends
Tech Mahindra was recommended through email to our premium service members as well as free members thru email for a target of Rs 850. The stock made a high of 872 today.

Tantia Construction was recommended on 30th March 2008, 10 days back. In the last 3 days 2 UPPER CIRCUITS of 20%....... What else???????
Tgt was 150 in 90 days.... seems we will reach there in the next few days itself.........(Check the report on tantia below, which was published on 30th March, 2008)

What say guys??? :-)

Done think twice...... Go ahead and JOIN US...........

For details mail us at nishantlakkar@gmail.com


Regards
Happy Investing
Investomaniac
JAIDADIKI

Sterlite Industries

Hi Friends
Sterlite Industries was recommended on friday @ 715 and also today morning @ 730, booked out 100% profits @ 745 and 753.
TANTIA CONSTRUCTION recommended last week (Check below)... HITS THE UPPER CIRCUIT TODAY>> up by 20%.....
We have started sending calls directly on email. Please contact nishantlakkar@gmail.com for registration purposes and recieving limited period free service.

Regards
Happy Investing
Investomaniac
JAIDADIKI

Tantia Construction Ltd-- Short Term

Hi Friends
Its time to now have a relook at some of the small cap and mid cap stocks after the butchering of 3 months for these indexes. The Space is looking really hot atleast for the short term.
TANTIA CONSTRUCTION (A Full Fledged Report Card)

TCL is engaged in all types of civil construction works with major presence in sectors like roads, railways, bridges, urban infrastructure development, power
transmission, aviation infrastructure, marine infrastructure, tunnels construction and at times, construction of turnkey projects. Of late, the company has also entered into industrial construction segment. The average value of the projects handled by the company, in the recent past, has been within Rs.50 crore with highest value of the project executed, till date, being Rs.65 crore. For the last few years, the company has started getting involved into relatively high value projects in joint venture with other construction companies or otherwise. The company uses latest technologies (developed by itself), machinery and equipment. In order to benefit the huge job potential in road & railway sectors, the company has formed quite a few joint ventures to make a significant headway in those segments with receipt of higher value contracts. It has formed technical collaboration with RBM Sdn Bhd, a Malaysian company, for executing a road project. The company also has
strategic alliance with Travaux Du Sud Ouest, a French company, to get the benefit of technical know-how, engineering insights and project management skills. In most of the projects executed by TCL, the drawings are either provided by the clients or TCL outsources designing and drawing facility, in consultation with clients.
TCL has an impressive client portfolio, which includes Indian Railways, IRCON International Ltd., RITES, Delhi Development Authority, HUDCO, Airport Authority
of India, Indian Oil Corporation, Balrampur Chini Mills Limited, SAIL, NHAI, Central & State PWDs, NEEPCO, Metro Railways (Kolkata) and various state undertakings of West Bengal. TCL continues to have a healthy order book position. As on June 30, 2007, the value of orders in hand (including on-going projects) was about Rs.1232 crore.
In FY'07, TCL has bagged orders worth about Rs.600 crore mainly in the areas of roads, highways and bridges from Road Construction Department, Govt. of Bihar, Central Public Works Department, New Delhi, Eastern Central Railway, Patna and KMDA. In view of its long & established track record, TCL gets good number of repeat orders significantly.
Now some of the positive triggers...
> The Company has a combined order book of more than Rs.1200 Cr at present. Some 1000Cr orders are on the pipeline
> This is a Core Infrastructure and Construction Company hence it will benefitted due to the additional fund allocation in "Bharat Nirman". The government's thrust on infrastructure development and a favourable Railway budget are positive triggers for the company (It has work from Central and Eastern Railways as well as Metro Railways)
> The company has listed its shares in The National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. last month and this has increased the liquidity in the counter, whic could prompt Mutual Funds and FIIs to stake in the company. This is a great positive trigger for the company and could also take the scrip above Rs.170, with this trigger.
> It is currently implementing 3 construction projects from National Hydroelectric Power Corporation Ltd (NHPC) for construction and maintenance of the road for the five years at Patna in the state of Bihar amounting to Rs 12.50 cr approx.
Two construction projects from World Bank Projects (Roads) U.P.P.W.D, Lucknow for Rehabilitation Road Works under Utter Pradesh Stale Roads Projects amounting to Rs 70.83 crores approx.
A rail work from Eastern Railway for earthwork, blanketing work, construction of RCC bridges between Azimganj Jn station to proposed bridge site across the river Bhagirathi along with the restoration of Rail Link in between Jiaganj (Murshidabad) and Azimganj Ju amounting to Rs 18.77 crore. The total value of work is Rs 102.10 Cr.
Also to be noted, it has also been working for the much hyped Kolkata Tramways Project in renewing the tram tracks all across Kolkata.
> Tantia Constructions Ltd had earlier issued FCCBs to the tune of US$ 7.5 million which had the option to be Convertible at any time on or after July 17, 2007 upto and prior to the close of Business on July 05, 2012 unless previously reduced, converted or purchased and cancelled and except during a closing period.Conversion Price: Rs 140/- per share. It is also expected that the funds raised through FCCBs will ease the level of debt on the balance sheet.

All the above supports are good enough for the stock to reach 150 in short term. And now since the mid cap and small cap space are looking good and attracting buying intrest (after the heavy butchering in the last 3 months)... We are all set to see a some of these companies getting their deserved price.

CMP (97.00)
(BSE: 532738) | NSE: TANTIACONS
Target 150+
Time Frame - 90 days- 180 days (maximum)
*Investors should book profits based on their profit taking appetite.

Long Term Investment - Power Grid Corp

Hi Friends
I have started updating the site once in a week now as I have started recieving so many mails/queries that after replying them I hardly get time to update the site regularly. However what I have been doing is that I have made a list of people who wish to recieve my short term and long term advice and mail them all together once as a call arises.
For the site viewers I would request all to kindly mail me at nishantlakkar@gmail.com to register for free short/long term calls.

I had a chance to talk to the management of Power Grid Corporation and was really excited to know about the progress they are making and planning to regulate the companys telecom business plans.
PGCIL is planning to invest upto Rs 500 billion in the transmission projects in the near term out of which around 52.5 blillion has already been invested. They are expecting to invest the remaining amount by 2012-13. According to the earning estimate reports published by Edelweiss, PGCIL is expected to have a net profit of around 20300 million in FY09E and 26000 million in FY10E. (Including income from tower and consultancy business). PGCILs entry into telecom space is likely to provide boost to its bottomline to the extent of 10-12%.
PGCIL currently has an overhead optic fibre network of 20,000 km, spanning 100 cities in the country. The company has order of over Rs 3,000 mn from various telecom players for leasing the optic fibre bandwidth. It also holds license for national long distance dialing and offering services as internet service provider (ISP); the company has been generating revenues from both these segments over the past two quarters.
I personally believe that it is very good long term buy and the prospects of the company are very attractive. Very few companies are there with a mix of telecom, power, and consultancy and we can see a price of Rs 200 in a years time. It is one of the best Long term Stocks to have in ones portfolio.
If anybody wants to access a report from Edelweiss for PGCIL then please request for the same at nishantlakkar@gmail.com

Happy Investing
Investomaniac
JAIDADIKI

Tax Planning

Hi Friends.
First of all I would like all of you to atleast use this fall (in which most of our investments are in loss) to use it purposefully or smartly in our annual return filing.
Suppose we have invested Rs 1,00,000 in the markets and today the value of that investment is Rs 60,000. There is Rs 40,000 Notional Loss in our accounts which has no meaning untill and unless we hold it for one complete year (because then there will be 0% long term capital gain tax) but then there is no guarantee that after 1 year this 60000 will sur pas our investment value of Rs 1 lakh and give us surplus returns of more then 20-30%. That means this 60000 will now have to double in one year in order to give us 20% Net Profit in One Years time. (ie: 60000 has to become 1,20,000) Instead, I would go ahead and book this loss before 31st March 2007. What will happen in this case is that If you already have made some profits as short term gains in this year then the short term gain will be immediately set off by this loss and there wont be any tax liability at your end for whatever little profit u have made in the accounting year 2007-2008 ending 31st March 2008. Suppose u have made a profit of Rs 40000 during the year, then your tax liability is Rs 4000. But if you book the losses in your current investments which is Rs 40000 then the tax liability is NIL. There is nothing to loose in it because if u want to stick to the same stocks, u sell them today, book ur short term losses, and buy them next day again. There is no problem in that as well, also it gives u the chance to reschuffle your portfolio if u want. Atleast we would be able to save some tax liablity in this case. This is purely legal.. nothing wrong about it. Please consult ur tax planner or a CA if anybody has any doubts regarding the same.

***
As far as the markets are concerned, i think we might see some lower bottoms being formed due to various factors like inflation, global cues, political reasons and dismal industrial production and quaterly results from India Inc. We have to be very selective in stock picking. As of now L&T is looking very attractive for long term horizon, untill and unless it breaks 2350-2400 there is nothing to worry about the stock. We can Buy the stock with a stop @ 2350. Any other queries/feedback or suggestions please mail me at nishantlakkar@gmail.com

Investment Idea - Grindwell Norton

Hi Friends
Markets have fallen more then 32% from the top and mid/small cap index is down to more then 50% but still some of our investment ideas are trading just below our recommended price because of very strong fundamentals and valuations. An example of that is Elgi Equipment. Recomended @ 60 the stock is still moving in the range of 52-58. Another Investment idea which I feel would be a multibagger once the market sentiments improve is Grindwell Norton.
Investment Rationale

Ø GNL, 51.33% subsidiary of Euro 43 billion Saint–Gobain (SG) of France and India ’s leading manufacturer of Abrasives, Silicon Carbide (SiC) & High Performance Refractories, has reported excellent performance for Q4 CY 2007. Net sales grew @ 29.2% to Rs. 123.3 crore led by 54.7% spurt in Ceramic & plastic sales of Rs. 34.8 crore (Rs. 22.5 crore). Abrasives sales were up by 19.1% to Rs. 86.7 crore (Rs. 72.8 crore). OPM% enhanced considerably to 17.5% (15.6%) mainly because of strict control on other expenses (20.9% of sales as against 26.2% in Q4 CY 2006) and reduction in power cost (to 7.7% from 9.5% of sales). Further aided by 58.8% spurt in other income of Rs. 5.4 crore, PBT shot up by 59.1% to Rs. 23.7 crore and PAT by 53.5% to Rs. 15.5 crore.
Ø For CY2007, Net sales were up by 18.2% to Rs. 440.8 crore. Abrasives turnover increased to Rs. 330.2 crore (Rs. 285.6 crore), growth of 15.6%, while Ceramics & Plastics turnover grew @ 25% to Rs. 106.5 crore (Rs. 85.2 crore). OPM% declined to 16.6% mainly because of rising raw material and personnel cost. However, strong sales growth coupled with 64.9% jump in other income of Rs. 21.6 crore led to 20.1% increase in PBT of Rs. 82.3 crore and 22.8% increase in PAT (before extra ordinary items) of Rs. 56.5 crore. Net of tax profit on sale of stake in Lincoln Helios (group company) of Rs. 77 crore (NIL) boosted PAT substantially to Rs. 133.5 crore.
Ø GNL caters to diverse industries like construction, automotive, steel, foundry, bearings, fabrication, laminates etc. In view of growing economy, GNL’s all user segments have been doing well and are expected to do well to provide scalable and de-risked growth profile in future. To meet growing demand and to further strengthen its competitive position (market share of ~31%), company is setting up a plant in tax haven in Himachal Pradesh for abrasives products at capex of Rs 37 crore in Phase I. Commercial production is likely to commence in H2 CY 2008. Further capex of Rs.20 crore will be incurred in Phase II. This plant will be key growth driver and it will give GNL an edge over its competitor & unorganised sector in terms of pricing : cost. Acquisition of bonded abrasive business of Orient brasives for Rs 26 crore in CY 2009 resulted in expansion of GNL’s product range and has given it an advantage in terms of new distribution channels, dealers and sales team.
Ø Company has set up 70:30 JV in Bhutan in partnership with Singye Group of Bhutan (30%) to set up Rs.34 crore project to manufacture 20,000 tpa of Silicon Carbide in two phases of 10,000 tpa each. While 1/3rd production will be utilised in-house, 2/3rd would be sold outside. This plant will enable GNL to get SiC at cheaper rates, at the same time, it will be able to sell SiC to outside parties at high EBIDTA of ~25-30%. Full benefits of this project will be available from CY09 onwards.
Ø Because of strong parentage, GNL has access to the best of products and technology and a global base. Company can buy raw materials / products from anywhere in the SG world to bring down costs. China , India and Brazil are 3 low cost manufacturing bases of SG. Over a period of time, SG will rationalize its manufacturing facilities so that GNL could become one of the hubs for certain products and certain markets.
Ø GNL generates strong cash flows and has cash surplus to the extent of ~ Rs 85 crore after having sold investment in a group company that works out to Rs.15 per share.
Ø The company is also declaring a dividend of Rs 4 on the stock for which the record date is 25th Mar to 28th Mar 2008.
All n All its a very good buy at current levels given the business model and the valuations.
Long Term Investors can see a tgt of 250+ within 12-15 months. Its really hard to recommend anything for the short term, but still is the market conditions are good then the stock can cross 160 levels pretty soon.

Happy Investing
Investomaniac
JAIDADIKI

L&T---- Return of 200rs already...

Hi Friends
L&T after making a low of around 2600 yesterday closed well above 2900 today, a again of around 250+ Rs in one day. As i said before that a stock like L&T cannot be available for a cheap price like 2600 for a long time. We can still get an opportunity to buy the stock at those levels if the markets break again in the coming days. Today the FED announced a releief of 200 billion dollars for the economy and the DOW opened up 250+ points. If they sustain above 200 points then we can see some fire crackers tomm in our markets tomm and in that case L&T can blast towards 3200+. As the stock has been recommended for long term, keep holding the stock for good returns.
Sesagoa is another stock which is looking very good at the moment. It can blast upto 3800+ (Risky call, activated only if the markets conditions are positive).

Happy Investing
Investomaniac
JAIDADIKI

L&T-- Investment Idea recommended yesterday

Hi Friends
Yesterday L&T made a low of 2610, down 300+ rs from previous days close. As I recommended yesterday that its a good buy @ 2500-2600 today we might get the chance to enter the stock in panic. We can initiate a BUY position for long term in the panic and we can get a price of even lower then 2500. So one can go ahead and use 25-35% of their money to invest now and the remaining can be entered upon later if the market falls again in the coming days. This is the best stock to enter at these levels. Do remem in panic we can get a price of 200-250 rs down from the last close so take some small position accordingly.

Markets to remain weak till the global pinch is not over.

Happy Investing
Investomaniac
JAIDADIKI

THE BEST INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY---- L&T

L&T--- The best investment bet (long term).

Larsen & Toubro
CMP - 2,999.0
PER - FY07 48.5 FY08E 32.5 FY09E 23.9
RoE(%)- FY07 26.1 FY08E 29.9 FY09E 31.0
Target - 4400+
Upside - 47%+

* Larsen & Toubro, the largest engineering and construction (E&C) company in India, is a direct beneficiary of the strong domestic infrastructure development and industrial capital expenditure (capex) booms. Consequently, we estimate the order inflows to grow at a CAGR of 20.7% between FY2007 and FY2010.
* The international business is expected to emerge as one of the key drivers going forward with immense opportunities from the Gulf Corporation Council markets.
* There lies innumerable opportunities in the new verticals in which the company is entering, namely ship building, defence, railways, thermal and nuclear power.
* We believe that there is a scope for further improvement in the margins on the back of rising operational efficiencies, larger ticket-size and more complex nature of orders, better raw material sourcing and integration, and higher contribution of its new businesses which carry higher margins.
* We value the core business of L&T at 28x FY2010E earnings, or Rs3,403 per share, while we value the subsidiaries at Rs1,025 per share of L&T. At the current levels, the stock is trading at 18.5x its FY2010E consolidated earnings.

According to us, one can buy the stock at around 2500-2600 in panic and keep it under the long term investmewnt portfolio for atleast 1 year. It is available at a throw away price and any improvement in the market condition and this stock will witness a sharp upside swing.
In these markets giving any kind of short term advice would be very very risky hence we would like you to do the same and wait for the bad wind to get past. The markets have fallen more then 32% from the top from 21206 and the worst hit indices are the small cap and mid cap index coming down almost 70% and 51% respectively. We would advice caution as we have been doing so from the 2nd week of Jan and also not to average at these levels.
RCOM may be coming out with some news on RELIANCE INFRATEL.... RISKY TRADERS CAN KEEP AN EYE ON THIS STOCK>> above 548---- 560 sure shot.

Keep you all posted in the weekends.

Happy Investing
Investomaniac
JAIDADIKI

The Union Budget FY09 (The First Impression)

Hi Friends
Here are the few points which i would like to bring to everybodys attention about this years BUDGET>>>
ST Capital gains tax increase to overshadow fiscal gains
The increase in Short Term Capital Gains tax (STCG)and the indirect increase in
Securities Transaction Tax (STT) will disappoint the markets, in our view. On the
positive side, the Finance Minister has succeeded in more than meeting his fiscal
deficit targets and has forecast a fiscal deficit of only 2.5% of GDP for next year
(though we guess effects of Pay Commission will take it higher).
Payback time for stock markets
Given the strong gains in stock market, the Finance Minister has increased the
STCG from 10% to 15% which will likely disappoint the market slightly. While he
has not increased the STT, he is no longer allowing it as a rebate from the total
taxes but as a business expenditure. We believe this will increase the post-tax
impact of STT.
Waiver of farm loans – Government to compensate banks
The Finance Minister has announced a waiver and a one-time settlement of
agricultural loans that will lead to a write-off of loans upto Rs600 bn. While details are still not clear, the Government has said that they will compensate the banks fully for these write-offs. In some sense, this is a pre-election move and there are demerits of loan waiver on those repaying on time but it also helps in a more inclusive growth by greater allocation of resources towards the poor.
Autos – gain with excise duty cuts, personal tax cuts Autos will gain in the budget with a decrease in excise duty by 4% on small cars, 2-wheelers, buses and CVs. Also, helping autos would be lowering of personal taxes and the impact of the likely announcement of the Pay Commission impact.
ITC, cement – excise duty increases slightly negative
ITC has seen an increase in excise duty but since it is only on non-filter cigarettes
which are a smaller part of their turnover, the overall impact is marginally negative. Cement companies too are hit marginally by increased excise on bulk cement.
Holding companies gain - Double Dividend Taxation set-off
Holding companies can now claim set-off of dividend taxes paid on dividend
received by their subsidiaries. This should help companies like Jaiprakash which
have presently many SPVs (and in future helps companies like Gammon, L&T
etc) as well as finance companies like ICICI, HDFC.

Taxes and Duties
Custom Duties
􀂄 Peak customs duty to remain unchanged
􀂄 Customs duty on project imports reduced to 5% from 7.5%
􀂄 Custom duty on steel melting scrap and aluminum scrap reduced to nil from 5%
􀂄 Duty on convergence products down to 5% from 10%
􀂄 To levy 5% customs duty on naphtha imports by polymer units
Excise Duties
􀂄 General CENVAT reduced to 14% from 16%
􀂄 Excise duty on pharmaceutical sector cut to 8% from 16%
􀂄 Excise duty on small and hybrid cars cut to 12% from 16%; bus and chassis
duty cut to 10% from 16%
􀂄 2 wheeler and 3 wheeler excise duty cut to 12% from 16%
􀂄 Paper and products duty cut to 8% from 12%
􀂄 Abolishes 6% ad-valorem duty on petrol, diesel and replaced with specific
duty of Rs1.35 per litre
􀂄 Zero excise on wireless data cards and puffed rice from earlier 16%
􀂄 Special packaging material to attract 8% excise vs earlier 16%
􀂄 No excise on cold chain end use items with greater than 2t refrigeration capacity
􀂄 Packaged software excise duty increased to 12% from 8%
Service tax
􀂄 To introduce service tax on stock exchange/ commodity exchange/ clearing house services, customized software services
􀂄 Clarifies moneychanger, tour operators and lottery services to pay service tax
Direct taxes
􀂄 Income tax threshold increased to Rs1.5Lakh from Rs1.1Lakh. 10% income tax for Rs1.5-3Lakh, 20% for Rs3-5lakh and 30% for above Rs5lakh income slabs
􀂄 No change in corporate income tax scheme
􀂄 No change in surcharge
􀂄 Short term capital gains tax increased to 15% from 10%
􀂄 Banking cash transaction tax withdrawn
􀂄 Commodities transaction tax for futures, equal to STT, to be introduced
􀂄 A five year income tax holiday for two, three or four star hotels in UNESCO world heritage cities in India announced and completed between April 1, 2008 to March 31, 2013
􀂄 A five year income tax holiday for hospitals in tier 2/3 towns announced and
completed between April 1, 2008 to March 31, 2013
􀂄 Dividend distribution tax on dividend of subsidiaries to parent to be set off in
dividend distribution tax paid by parent company
􀂄 Tax to GDP ratio seen at 12.5%
Others
􀂄 Defense spending to go up by 10%
􀂄 Education spending to go up by 20%; 6,000 high quality schools to be built in FY09
􀂄 Health spending to go up 15%


These were some important points from the budget which i could point out.
For sector wise negatives and positives please mail at nishantlakkar@gmail.com

Happy Investing
Investomaniac
JAIDADIKI

Market Outlook (For the coming days)

Hi Friends
Really sorry for not updating the site on a daily basis, as there are lot of queries coming up and in order to answer as many as possible hardly any time is left to update the site daily. However the ones who are intrested in the Delivery Calls should not be worried much about it because it does not require daily postings. Actually this site is meant for Delivery based investors but due to so many emails regarding nifty views and outlook i started updating frequently. I keep on adding the query list in my address book and send them emails together constantly updating about the markets and the open calls. Would request all to mail any queries/feedback or suggestions @ nishantlakkar@gmail.com with the subject "Query/Feeback/Suggestion" which ever is applicable
Nyways,
Markets have gained on 2 days after a week long consolidation between 4900 and 5200.
I personally believe that one should hold on to their current positions and dont take any additional position till budget.
Although I expect the Education, health, and IT sector to get special considerations in this budget.
I would like to highlight some of the important points from my reports to all the free access members here in this website regarding the expectations from budget.

• Reduction in direct tax rates for individuals
• Some reduction or elimination of dividend distribution tax
• Rationalization of excise duties, including the auto sector
• Rationalization of exemptions for corporates
• Lower customs duties for commodities to contain inflation and
rationalization of inconsistencies
• Enhanced credit availability for the agriculture sector
• Some relief in FBT
• A sharp increase in the outlays for social sectors like health and education
ØBalancing act on growth v/s social commitments to continue
ØSince this budget is the last full budget (next budget most likely to be vote-onaccount
budget) of UPA, the FM may be tilted towards social commitments
ØThe tug of war between inflation and growth related measures will also
continue
ØWe expect higher allocations to education, unemployment, healthcare to
support the social commitments
ØInfrastructure will again turn out to be the key thrust area and we expect
further measures to be announced to boost investment in this area
ØBudget allocation to agriculture related items may get intensified as
agriculture is a weak component to the GDP. An increase in agri supply also
eases out inflation
ØFiscal deficit could be projected at sub 3% level
ØGovt’s commitment towards achieving the 9% GDP rate will continue
ØFurther cut in certain custom duties in commodity sectors like metals,
petrochem and chemicals is expected as this will ease out the supply side
constraints on one hand and reduce the pressure on inflation on the other
ØA cut in direct tax rates expected as the first 10 months’ direct tax
collections have been 40% above the target
ØWe expect a likely cut in corporate tax rate to 30%. This is despite the fact
that we expect a populist budget
ØThe individual threshold limit might get revised upwards or alternatively
there might be an investment based incentive scheme introduced to
channelise savings for investment purposes

These are a part of the report which i prepared for the PMS and other members. I also have a full report on BUDGET from Kotak... If anybody wants that please email your request.

Happy Investing
Investomaniac
JAIDADIKI

Market Outlook (21/02/2008)

Hi Friends
Yesterday we saw one of the worst days since my entry into the stock markets. I term it as the worst day (even worst then any other lower circuit in the markets before) because the games which the nifty was playing. It kept on breaking the supports and hitting the resistance for numerous occassions during the trading day and the traders ARE RELUCTANT TO HOLD ON TO ANY POSITION, BE IT SHORTS OR LONGS. The volumes are still a concern for me as around 60000 crore volume on Nifty is atleast 35-40% less then a normal day trading participation of 95-100 thousand crores. It would be very difficult for the markets to go up untill and unless the domestic and foreing funds take long positions and most importantly hold them. What is happening right now is that whatever positions the traders are taking they are booking it instantly.. ie: not carrying their longs or shorts which makes the stop loss hit on both the sides and eventually selling pressure is seen. My view is that we have to soon go past 5350-5360 mark and stay above it with good volumes to be under the wraps of the bulls. On the other side, if the markets breaks the 200 DMA again which is around 4890 levels... then we are in a BEAR PHASE with the heavy DOWNSIDE.
Asian Markets are trading strong and DOW also ended onj positive note after a weak opening hence we can open positive today but have to see weather we are able to sustain the highs or make new highs for the day or not.
I am still long and will wait for today... If we break support levels today as well then I would advice an EXIT on ALL LONGS...

Happy Investing
Investomaniac
JAIDADIKI

Market Outlook (20/02/2008)

Hi Friends
As mentioned earler we have seen 2 days of sluggish trading where profit booking was seen on every rise...I am extremly positive on the remaining days of the week and my expiry target is above 5700++... The momentum stocks like NTPC, RPACK, TISCO, TATAMOTOR etc should be performing well along with the markets.... All investment advices should be on hold. Any other queries/feedback/information please mail at nishantlakkar@gmail.com

Happy Investing
Investomaniac
JAIDADIKI

Market Outlook (18/02/2008)

Hi Friends
Markets are all set for a PREBUDGET rally...The fundamentals and the technicals both give a clear indication of a ROCK SOLID Expiry for this series..
As per the technicals the markets have bounced back after breaking the 200 DMA levels twice and history also says that markets have strongly bounced back after that. As per the technical experts...... the markets are all set for a ride on the upside and it could be termed as a pre budget rally....
We have already booked our positions on friday and we can reenter the same with nifty targeting 5800+ in expiry....

All our investment picks are rocking.. and should be kept on hold.
INOX Leisure is looking very good at the moment.. and may target 175 in the near term.
Happy Investing
Investomaniac
JAIDADIKI

Market Review (for the week ended 15/02/2008)

Hi Friends
As expected the markets rocked after last tuesday and those who traded on the NIFTY FUTURES & OPTION calls given by me for buying on last tuesday would have made significant movement, because from wednesday the markets have moved NON STOP on the upper side. The nifty 5500 call bouht around 25-30-35 levels.. made a high of 80 rs.. Nifty jumped more then 300++ points for those who had bought on tuesday late trade as informed bty me... Delivery calls are not to be discussed on a daily basis, as they are meant to be moving slowly but steadily.. Keep holding the stocks for good returns. There are some rumours coming that RPOWER is planning to issue bonus shares (except the promoters) to all those investors who are currently holding their stocks.. board meeting on 24th Feb.. Unconfirmed news though... if true... could take the stock past the issue price very soon...!!
We will wait for some time to reenter the markets... at this point of time I would wait and watch my holdings grow even if the markets are rising...!!

Happy Investing
Investomaniac
JAIDADIKI

Market Outlook (15/02/2008)

Hi Friends
I hope all have enjoyed the 2 days of bull run after my recommendation to buy on tuesday late hours.. All those who would have bought Nifty on Tuesday late hours would have made 300+ points in it till today.. I recommended to few people buying a 5500 Call @ around 26-27 and also above around 35-36. Today the price was 53. I WOULD PREFER PEOPLE WHO HAVE POSITIONS TO BOOK PROFITS HERE BECAUSE I FEEL THAT WE MIGHT HAVE 1-2 SLUGGISH TRADING SESSIONS WITH A NEGATIVE BIAS. I DONT SEE A HUGE FALL FROM HERE, BUT THE LAST 2 DAYS VOLUMES ARE A SIGN OF WORRY FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH I AM QUITE BULLISH BEFORE THIS EXPIRY BUT STILL IN THIS MARKET WOULD PREFER BOOKING PROFITS AS AND WHEN THEY COME. BOOK OUT AND WAIT TILL MONDAY-TUESDAY FOR A CLEAR SIGNAL AND THEN WE WILL RE-ENTER, IF I SEE ANY REASON FOR REBUYING EARLIER THEN THAT, THEN WOULD INTIMATE THE SAME HERE AT THE EARLIEST. DELIVERY BASED INVESTMENTS CAN BE LEFT UNTOUCHED BECAUSE WE ARE NOT BOTHERED ABOUT THE SAME. BOOK PROFITS IN THE TRADING AND SHORT TERM CALLS.

Happy Investing
Investomaniac
JAIDADIKI

Market Outlook (13/02/2008)

Hi Friends
I hope every body bought the recommended shares today in the late hours...(which was mentioned in the previous blog that to buy only on tuesday late trade, not before that). We might open gap up and it has to be seen wheather we sustain at higher levels or we see the selling pressure. As i have told before that there was some news of Foreign Funds entering the Indian markets in the 2nd week of Feb and we can see an upmove from there... (All these news have been shared in this blog, kindly refer the previous posts).
My Nifty target before this months expiry is 5500+ and thats the reason why I asked all to BUY NIFTY 5500 Calls...
The other delivery stocks willl rock in the coming days.. keep holding the same.
Dow is trading up 175 points when I am writin this article...

Happy Investing
Investomaniac
JAIDADIKI

JAIDADIKI


Following are the stocks/futures/options strategy for the coming days. (Buy on Tuesday late trade or Wednesday for delivery). Some of the stocks have already been recommended before and hence would like all to average them or make fresh buying in these stocks. Markets are looking positive from 14th Feb, 2008, However we wont wait till the 14th to BUY QUALITY STOCKS… We would do that 1-2 days before

1) ELGI EQUIPMENTS – Target 92+ Short Term
2) RATHI UDYOG – Target 50+ Short Term
3) HOUSE OF PEARLS FASHION LTD – Target 400 Medium Term
4) KOHINOOR BROADCASTING – Target 30+ Medium Term
5) RANBAXY LABORATORY – Target 500+ Medium Term
6) DEEPAK and NAGARJUNA FERTILIZERS are looking good for very short term (will participate heavily in the PRE-BUDGET RALLY)
7) TANLA SOLUTIONS – Target 800+ Short Term, Long Term Targets are HUGE.. 4 figures…
8) MARUTI – Target 900+ Short Term
9) SHRI LAKSHMI COTSYN LTD – Target 235+ Medium Term
10) EMMSONS INTERNATIONAL- Target 250+ Short Term, Long Term Targets are HUGE (it’s a very good long term investment for 1+ year view)
11) RELIANCE COMMUNICATIONS – Target 850+ Medium Term/Long Term

FUTURES/OPTIONS
1)BUY NIFTY FUT only on or after Tuesday for a target of 5500+
2)BUY THE UNDERMENTIONED OPTION TRADES (The third one NIFTY 6000 CE FEB 08, is a lottery ticket of Rs 1000, only for those who are in ample profit. Treat it as a LOSS. That’s why we call it a lottery ticket, either you loose the entire Rs 1000 or you get Rs 5000.)

Instrument
Type Expiry Type Strike High Low Prev Close Last Price
OPTIDX NIFTY 28-Feb-08 CE 5500 106 75 101.75 93.25
OPTIDX NIFTY 27-Mar-08 CE 6000 100 76 94.25 80.2
OPTIDX NIFTY 28-Feb-08 CE 6000 27 16 22.95 20.8


***
Please Note:- Its not possible to publish all the details of all the stocks mentioned here. Anybody who wants the details and the reasons why I am recommending the stock or any queries regarding the stock/options mentioned above can feel free to contact for the details @ nishantlakkar@gmail.com
Also, Dont buy the stocks in a hurry. Please wait till Tuesday late trade or wednesday before investing in these trades. For disclaimer please see the bottom of the page. Myself do not have any positions in the stocks mentioned above however we can enter these recommendations on the date mentioned.

Happy Investing
Investomaniac
JAIDADIKI